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Trading organizations were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared with December 2025, omitting any seasonal trading. Data are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Nearly a 3rd (31%) of trading businesses reported that their turnover had decreased in January 2026 compared with the previous month.

Nevertheless, the movements are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The markets with the highest percentage reporting that turnover reduced in January 2026 were: the accommodation and food service activities industry (52%, which is a 21 portion point rise from December 2025) the other services market (45%) the arts, entertainment and recreation industry (40%) Roughly 16% of trading services reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 portion point boost compared with December 2025.

For trading services with 10 or more staff members, 33% reported that their turnover had decreased, which was broadly steady compared to December and January 2025. More than one in five (23%) businesses reported that their turnover had increased, up 2 percentage points compared with December 2025. Generally, the percentage of businesses reporting that their turnover increased correlated to the size of the organization.

The exception to this was the percentage for businesses with 250 or more employees, which was 25%, and 5 percentage points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading companies were asked how they expect their turnover to alter in the coming month. This can then be utilized to anticipate how business's turnover will really change when that calendar month concludes.

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Patterns between anticipated turnover and actual turnover have actually broadly moved in the exact same direction, the motions for expectations tend to be bigger. Caution must be taken when interpreting expectations concerns, as the staff members reacting on behalf of organizations may not have complete oversight of all of their business's future expectations.

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More than one in five (21%) trading businesses anticipate their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 percentage point increase from February 2026 however was broadly stable compared to expectations for March 2025 (22%). The proportion of trading services expecting an increase in January 2026 was 13%, while the proportion that reported an actual increase in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, recommending a minor pessimism in services expectations.

The trends have broadly followed each other given that the questions were introduced in April 2022. The outcomes for March 2026 follow the trend from previous years, with the percentage of organizations expecting turnover to increase peaking after a decline in January. Larger companies were most likely to expect an increase in turnover in March, with the percentage ranging from 20% for companies with 0 to 9 staff members, to 42% for organizations with 100 to 249 staff members.

For presentational purposes, some reaction options have been eliminated. Data are outlined in the middle of the duration of each wave.

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The proportion of trading businesses that expected a reduction in January 2026 was 25%, while the percentage that reported a real reduction in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The proportion of companies anticipating turnover to decrease for a particular month ahead of time has stayed significantly lower than the percentage of businesses reporting a real decrease in that month given that April 2022.

Expectations for turnover to reduce have consistently followed the exact same pattern, as actual reported turnover decreases throughout this time. Trading organizations were asked what difficulties, if any, were affecting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading services reported that financial unpredictability was having an effect on their turnover, which was broadly steady with early January 2026.

This is broadly stable compared to early January 2026 and 2 percentage points down compared with a year earlier. For trading companies with 10 or more staff members, cost of labour was the most frequently reported obstacle, at 36%. This was broadly steady compared with early January 2026. Businesses with 10 to 49 staff members were more most likely to report expense of labour as an obstacle than businesses with 250 or more staff members (37%, compared with 20%). One in 5 (20%) trading businesses with 10 or more employees suggested that they were not presently experiencing any turnover difficulties in early February 2026. Further information on monetary performance, consisting of all action alternatives categorised by market and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.